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WAPA Releases 2017 Crop Forecast
The figures released at Prognosfruit leave room for careful optimism for the coming season, with a more balanced situation between supply and demand after the last three years, which registered in particular for apples, a peak crop.
The 2017 European forecast for apple is 9.343.000 T, which is 21% down to last year’s figure, and 23% less than the average of the last three years. This figure is based on the estimates from the top 21 Member States of the EU-28, having contributed to this report. In regard to varieties, Golden Delicious production will decrease by 18% to 1.982.000 T. Gala is also estimated to decrease, by 3% to 1.276.000 T. Idared will be down by 30% to 679.000 T, while the production of Red Delicious is estimated at 576.000 T, which is a 9% decrease compared to last year. Also, other new varieties (i.e. club varieties) will decrease by 15%, from 157.000 T to 133.000 T. A particular point of concern this year was the intense frost during blossoming, and the drought during spring and early summer. In other non-EU Northern Hemisphere countries, significant decreases were noted: Russia (-37%), Mexico (-30%), Switzerland (-21%), Belarus (-19%), Ukraine (-10%), and Canada (-5%), while the USA is expecting a stable crop around 4.800.000 T. Additionally, China is expecting a further growth by 3% compared to last year’s crop of 43.800.00 T. The US apple forecast will be updated after the US Apple Outlook conference in Chicago 24-25 August.
More specifically about the EU apple market, it is to be reminded that, over the last years, the market suffered the consequences of the Russian embargo and were more recently confronted by lower export volumes to North African markets. The new crop could therefore lead to a better balance of the supply.
The market will start clearing stocks for most varieties, with expected good hand over from the Southern Hemisphere. Overall, the new season is due to start with two weeks earlier than average. There might be different market trends for each of the varieties, with better balance for Gala and more reduced volume for Golden or Jonagold, and Elstar. In the coming weeks, growers will closely monitor the quality, which could still influence the balance of the market between fruit destined for the fresh market and the fruit destined for processing. It is currently forecasted that ca 6.200.000 T will be moving on the fresh market and 3.200.000 T for processing.
In regard to pear, the total European pear crop in 2017 is estimated to reach 2.148.000 T, which is 1% lower than last year, and 8% less compared to the average of the last three years. This figure relates to the production of the top 19 Member States of the EU-28 growing pears and contributing with their data to this report. In 2017, the Conference variety will see its production decrease by 7% to 844.000 T, and William BC will decrease by 6% to 247.000 T. Abate F, on the other hand, is estimated to increase by 12% to reach 332.000 T. Elsewhere in the Northern Hemisphere, crops increased, compared to last year, in Turkey (+11%), Canada (+20%) and Moldova (+50%), whilst decreases are estimated for the production in Russia (-37%), Belarus (-20%), Switzerland (-34%), and the US (-3%).
In regard to the specifics, the market will be experiencing different trends between the Southern and Northern EU markets, reflected as well in higher volume of Abate and Rocha, while the Conference pear will be down. The pear season will start with less pressure than last year. There has been some positive development in the exports to new markets during the last years, but the effects of the Russian embargo will still be felt by the growers.
Overall, the European apple and pear sector stays committed to the best quality produce to be placed on the market and continues to adapt the orchards to varieties with taste and crunchiness adapted to evolving consumers’ expectations.
WAPA will continue to monitor the development of the Northern and Southern Hemisphere crop, and will issue updates whenever feasible and necessary.
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