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Fruit and vegetable market
According to CSO data, fruit production in Poland in 2015 reached approx. 4.1 million tonnes compared to 4.2 million tonnes in the previous year. Harvests of apples, pears, plums, currants, gooseberries, chokeberries and, above all, raspberries were smaller (a significant drop in harvests of autumn varieties). The production of sour cherries, sweet cherries, strawberries and highbush blueberries increased. Harvests of field vegetables dropped by 18.2% to 3.9 million tonnes and those of vegetables grown under cover rose by 3.5% to 1 million tonnes. Harvests of fruit and vegetables in the EU dropped respectively from 39.1 to 37.7 million tonnes and from 63.8 to 63.3 million tonnes. The drop in production in EU Member States was due to conditions that were unfavourable for horticultural crops in Europe nearly throughout their growing season (heat waves and periods of insufficient soil humidity).
Despite smaller harvests, the production of fruit preserves in Poland in the 2015/16 season was higher than in the previous season by approx. 25 thousand tonnes and amounted to 1.10 million tonnes. An increase in the production of sour cherry, strawberry and black currant preserves (primarily frozen fruit and concentrated juice) was decisive. The production of concentrated apple juice did not change. An increase in the production of juice produced from domestic raw materials was accompanied by a decrease in import of concentrate mixed with domestic juice. The production of vegetable preserves dropped by 15 thousand tonnes to 1 075 thousand tonnes. An upward trend in the production of tomato preserves (primarily ketchup) continued, while the production of other groups of preserves, including frozen vegetables, declined. The total production of juice, nectars as well as fruit and fruit and vegetable drinks rose from 1.60 to a record-breaking level of 1.65 million tonnes. An increase in the production of apple juice, including primarily NFC (Not From Concentrate) juice, was decisive. In 2015, the financial situation of businesses in the fruit and vegetable industry was as good as last year, thus most companies did not have any problems with purchasing raw material.
The total volume of export of fresh horticultural products in the 2015/16 season amounted to 1.52 million tonnes compared to 1.67 million tonnes in the previous season. A decline in export of apples, which dominated sales of fresh fruit and vegetables, was decisive. Lack of export to Russia was not offset by an increase in sales to Belarus, the EU-13 and North Africa – primarily Egypt. Export of nearly all vegetable species as well as plums, strawberries and raspberries decreased. Only foreign sales of sour cherries, sweet cherries and blueberries grew. An upward trend in export of tomatoes and champignons continued. Export of fruit and vegetable preserves surged from 1.57 to 1.59 million tonnes. Export of frozen fruit, concentrated juice from coloured fruit, juice – primarily NFC, tomato preserves and peanut preserves increased, so did re-export of dried vegetables (primarily dried onion). As a result of selling stocks from the 2014/15 season, export of frozen vegetables grew as well. However, due to a drop in demand in markets, export of apple juice concentrate declined. Average export prices of nearly all fruit, vegetables and their preserves were higher than last season and, due to shortages in the world market, prices of raspberries and raspberry preserves rose the most. Only prices of black currants and black currant preserves were lower. As a result of price increases, total revenues from export of fruit and vegetables rose by 3% to 770 million EUR and the value of export of fruit and vegetable preserves increased more than that of sales volume, i.e. by approx. 5.5% to EUR 1.64 billion. Total revenues from export of fresh and processed horticultural products rose from EUR 2.30 billion to EUR 2.41 billion and, including champignons and champignon preserves, from EUR 2.72 billion to EUR 2.84 billion, thus accounting for 11.9% of the value of export of agri-food sector products compared to 12.0% in the 2014/15 season.
Import of southern fruit, which accounted for approx. 91% of the total volume of import of fresh fruit, fell by 2% to 1.28 million tonnes. Import of citrus fruit, peaches, nectarines and grapes dropped as a result of price increases. Import of bananas and kiwi fruit grew. Out of temperate zone fruit, only import of strawberries and raspberries increased. Due to a fall in domestic harvests, import of nearly all vegetable species rose. Among fruit and vegetable preserves, import of pineapple and peach preserves, whose prices were higher than in the 2014/15 season, dropped. Having realigned import prices, import of concentrated apple juice from Ukraine decreased significantly as well (approx. 76% of import of concentrate in the 2014/15 season). The total value of import of fruit, vegetables and their preserves increased from EUR 2.42 billion to EUR 2.56 billion. The positive balance of trade in products of this commodity group decreased from EUR 297.5 million to EUR 266 million and, excluding champignons and champignon preserves, the negative balance of trade amounted to EUR 152 million compared to EUR 117 million in the 2014/15 season.
The Russian embargo contributed to an increase in export of horticultural products and horticultural product preserves to mostly EU Member States, but also to other markets – primarily to North Africa and Middle East countries. In 2015, the share of EU Member States in the value of export of products of this commodity group was 79.5% compared to 68.6% last year (and 65.6% in 2013). The share of other countries (excluding CIS countries) increased from 5.2 to 7.6%. The share of Belarus in the value of export surged from 4.0% in 2013 to 6.1% in 2015. An increase in the share of Belarus in the value of foreign sales was much smaller than that in the volume of export as a result of very low weighted average prices of products exported to this country.
Buying-in prices of nearly all fruit in 2015 were higher than last year and prices of plums and raspberries grew the most. In the 2015/16 season, buying-in prices of dessert apples were higher than in the previous season by 20% and those of apples for processing – by 48%. Buying-in prices of nearly all vegetables were higher. The profitability of growing most horticultural products improved significantly. The production of black currants remained significantly unprofitable. Despite price increases, the production of sour cherries was unprofitable as well.
It is estimated that average retail prices of fruit and fruit preserves in the 2015/16 season increased compared to the previous season by approx. 10%. An increase in prices of apples and berries was decisive. Prices of vegetables and vegetable preserves rose by approx. 5%. Due to higher prices, the household consumption of fruit and fruit preserves dropped from 43.5 to 43.1 kg per capita and that of vegetables and vegetable preserves – from 59.1 to 58.5 kg per capita.
The share of consumption in the distribution of the volume of domestic supply of fresh fruit produced in Poland (export, consumption, supplies for processing) decreased from 21.3 to 21% and that of vegetables increased from 45.8 to 46.5%. The share of export dropped respectively from 21.4 to 19.5% and from 11.0 to 10.4%. Supplies for processing accounted for 59.5% of domestic supply of fruit compared to 57.3% in the 2014/15 season. With regard to vegetables, the ratio remained at approx. 43%. The share of harvests of fruit in its total consumption in the domestic market (harvests and the balance of foreign trade in all fruit) declined from 95.6 to 83.5%. With regard to vegetables, the ratio rose from 89.3 to 97.8% and, as far as fruit and vegetable preserves are concerned, fell from 174.7 to 170.9%.
It is expected that harvests of fruit in 2016 will be slightly higher than last year. An increase in the production of apples and raspberries will be decisive. Harvests of nearly all field vegetables will be higher and the production of vegetables grown under cover – slightly lower. Buying-in prices of most fruit will be higher than in 2015 (only prices of raspberries will fall). Buying-in prices of gooseberries were lower. However, buying-in prices of most field vegetables (primarily brassica and root vegetables) will decrease compared to very high harvests in 2015.
The production of most fruit and vegetable preserves in the 2016/17 season will grow. Only the production of concentrated fruit juice may fall. The production of concentrated apple juice will decline due to a further decrease in its import and that of concentrated juice from coloured fruit – due to smaller supplies of black currants, sour cherries and strawberries for processing. An upward trend in the production of juice, nectars as well as fruit and fruit and vegetable drinks will continue.
Export of most fruit and vegetable species as well as fruit and vegetable preserves will grow. The final level of export of apples (to a lesser extent, other products) will depend on the development of trade relations with Russia (and Belarus) and the scale of market diversification. Export prices of vegetables and vegetable preserves will be lower and those of most fruit and fruit preserves will not change significantly (prices of raspberries and raspberry preserves will be lower). Prices of most imported fruit, vegetables and their preserves should not be higher than in the 2015/16 season (excluding concentrated orange juice). As a result of an expected decline in export prices of vegetables and vegetable preserves, total revenues from export of horticultural products and horticultural preserves may not be greater than in the 2015/16 season and the balance of trade in these products (excluding champignons) will remain negative.
In the 2016/17 season, retail prices of vegetables and vegetable preserves will fall and retail prices of fruit and preserves may be similar to those in the previous season. The consumption of vegetable products will increase and that of fruit and fruit preserves will remain unchanged.
Materiały: IERiGŻ-PIB, Rynek Owoców i Warzyw - Analizy
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