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Prognosfruit 2025/2026: EU Apple and Pear Production Revised Upwards
Prognosfruit 2025/2026: EU Apple and Pear Production Revised Upwards – Market Remains Balanced with Positive Outlook
During the meeting of the Pipfruit Market Observatory of the European Commission, the World Apple and Pear Association (WAPA) presented an updated forecast for the 2025/2026 European apple and pear season, initially released at Prognosfruit in August this year.
The revised data show a moderate increase in production for both categories – reaching nearly 11 million tonnes of apples and slightly over 1.8 million tonnes of pears. This growth is mainly due to favourable late-summer weather conditions, which improved fruit size and colouration for mid- and late-season varieties.
Although the overall production has slightly increased compared to August projections, total volumes remain below the full production potential of 13 million tonnes for apples and more than 2 million tonnes for pears, confirming a “medium-to-low” season for Europe’s pipfruit sector.
Forecast Revisions – Up by 5%
According to the latest estimates, EU apple production rose from the initial 10.4 million tonnes to 10.9–11 million tonnes, about 5% higher than originally forecast in August. This places the current crop as the sixth-largest of the decade, still well below the record year of 2018 (13.2 million tonnes).
Meanwhile, pear production is estimated at just over 1.8 million tonnes, marking the third consecutive low crop and the fourth smallest harvest of the decade, far from the 2010 peak of 2.7 million tonnes.
Weather Impact and Country Updates
After challenging spring conditions – late frost, weak pollination, and early-summer drought – September brought improvements thanks to rainfall and moderate temperatures, which boosted yields across several Member States.
The main upward revisions were recorded in:
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Poland (+400,000 tonnes)
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Germany (+60,000 to 80,000 tonnes)
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Belgium (+20,000 tonnes)
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The Netherlands (+10,000 tonnes)
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France (+20,000 tonnes)
For pears, increases were seen mainly in Belgium (+25,000 tonnes), The Netherlands (+10,000 tonnes), and France(+10,000 tonnes), partially offset by a slight decrease in Italy (-9,000 tonnes).
Balanced Market and Positive Perspectives
“Although this year’s harvest is slightly higher than initially anticipated, the European apple and pear market remains well balanced,” said Philippe Binard, speaking on behalf of Prognosfruit.
“Production continues to stay below full potential, stocks are clean, and new export opportunities are creating a positive outlook for the rest of the season,” he added.
While early sales in some countries were slowed by abundant garden production and cautious consumer demand, the market is now gaining momentum, supported by healthy domestic consumption and growing export opportunities.
According to the EU Market Observatory, the season started under favourable conditions – with no overlapping stocks or significant imports. Although intra-EU trade has not yet reached its full potential (partly due to strong local availability in Germany), it remains a reliable foundation for the sector alongside domestic sales.
Some quality challenges have led to higher volumes being directed to the processing industry, which helps balance the fresh market and is expected to tighten fresh fruit stocks later in the season.
Exports Up by 20%
Despite geopolitical headwinds, EU apple and pear exports have increased by 20% year-on-year, driven by lower production in Turkey. This situation opens new opportunities for EU exporters in the Middle East, India, and North Africa (Egypt, Libya), as well as in Southeast Asia and Latin America, despite exchange rate disadvantages, market access limitations, and ongoing logistical challenges in the Red Sea.
Challenges and Future Outlook
The sector must continue to address several challenges to maintain positive momentum, including:
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Achieving satisfactory price levels to offset rising production costs,
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Ensuring access to a diversified set of production and performance tools,
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Managing emerging biosecurity risks linked to climate change.
Equally important will be stimulating consumer demand, adjusting packaging to new preferences, and maintaining competitiveness amid increasing competition from other fruit and agri-food categories.
Apples and pears remain a cornerstone of the European fruit basket, offering a wide variety of choices to consumers throughout the year. Their continued success will depend on the future direction of EU agricultural policy, including the upcoming CAP reform and initiatives aimed at making the sector more attractive to younger generations.
More about the future outlook of the apple and pear sector will be presented during Prognosfruit 2026, taking place in Constance, Germany, on 5–7 August 2026.
About WAPA
The World Apple and Pear Association (WAPA) was founded in 2001 as a platform for discussion, cooperation, and advocacy within the apple and pear sector. The current President of WAPA is Jeff Correa (Pear Bureau Northwest – USA), and the Vice President is Nick Dicey (Hortgro – South Africa). WAPA’s membership includes organisations from over 20 countries, including Argentina, Australia, Austria, Belgium, Brazil, China, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Poland, South Africa, the United Kingdom, and the United States.
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