The World Citrus Organisation Northern Hemisphere Citrus Forecast shows recovery in citrus production

The World Citrus Organisation (WCO) has released its annual Northern Hemisphere Citrus Forecast for theupcoming citrus season (2023-24). The Forecast was released on the occasion of the Global Citrus Outlookconference organized on 15 November by WCO. The forecast is based on data from Egypt, Greece, Israel,Italy, Morocco, Spain, Tunisia, Turkey, and the United States. This year, the Forecast shows that citrusproduction is projected to reach 28,976,001 T, which represents a 12.2% increase compared to the previouspeak low season. The 2023/2024 forecast is 1.48% higher than the average of the last 4 seasons.WCO, the World Citrus Organisation, released on 15 November its annual Northern Hemisphere citrusforecast for the upcoming season (2023-24). The preliminary Forecast is based on data from industryassociations from the Mediterranean region and the United States. Total citrus exports are expected to followa similar trend at 9,483,770 T, up by 11.4% from last season and 4.5% from the last four seasons’ average.Philippe Binard, WCO Secretary General, summarised the outcome of the Forecast. “The market insights wereceived indicate a recovery from the low point of last season. The growth is mainly influenced by growth inTurkey and Egypt while other countries are stable or only recorded marginal gains”. Eric Imbert from CIRADadded, “While this year's forecast shows a recovery with variable conditions across the producing countriesand citrus categories, many parameters have to be taken into account for the market analysis”. He added:“Climatic issues, such as late frost, drought, heat waves, or new pests and diseases influenced the quality,colouring, or harvest date for the production. The market will still be impacted by geopolitical instability whileconsumer demand is under pressure due to limitation of purchasing power and inflation”.

Looking at the country-specific figures for the largest producers in the EU, Spain's citrus production at 5.9 MTis up by 2% to previous seasons, with stable soft citrus compared to last year, fewer oranges (-6%) and morelemons. Italy is up by 6% at 2.6 MT, with more oranges (+20%) and less soft citrus and lemons (-10% each),while Greece is down by 7% to 1.1 MT. In the other Mediterranean countries, Turkey is now the marketleader with a first production estimate of 6.5 MT (+45%), with strong growth across all categories. The Turkishproduction forecast could even exceed 7 MT. This results from the increased acreage and productivity,alternance, and favourable climatic conditions. Egypt at 5.4 MT is up by 10% from the previous season and15% from the average of the last 4 years. The main category is oranges with 3,7 MT (+5%) while soft citrus’sdouble-digit growth should almost reach 1.3 MT. Morocco’s production is expected to partially recover,bouncing back to just over 2 MT, with 1 MT of soft citrus (+11%) and 930,000 T of oranges. Israel’s productionis estimated at 365,000 T, but the recent conflict and attack on the country is a source of multiple challengesregarding supply, logistics, and human resources for harvesting and packing. The production in the UnitedStates will be up by 1% at 4.5 MT with more oranges ( +10% at 2.4 MT) but less soft citrus (-2% at 856,000 T)and even less so for lemon ( -12% at 889,000 T).

Philippe Binard added: “WCO is also setting some trends for the expected utilization of citrus for the upcomingseason. The global citrus exports will be up by 11% to reach 9,4 MT, while processing will increase by 8% toreach 4,7 MT, leaving 14.7 MT for domestic sales (+14%.). Next April, the WCO will release the 2024production and export forecast for the Southern Hemisphere.

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